Will Bitcoin's 4-year cycle return? A 70% drop or a $1 million peak!

Vineet Budki, CEO of investment firm Sigma Capital, believes that Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle is still intact and the cryptocurrency could fall by up to 70% in the next bearish period.

He said at the Global Blockchain Conference 2025 in Dubai:

There is a 65-70% chance of a correction in the next two years, as many traders do not understand the asset they are holding. When people buy Bitcoin without knowing, they sell it at the first sign of volatility, which creates selling pressure. However, Budki believes that even if Bitcoin drops to $70,000, it will not lose its utility.

He has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could reach more than $1 million in the next 10 years, a growth that he says will be achieved by a combination of speculative incentives and actual real-world applications of Bitcoin.

While some analysts, such as Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, believe that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is over and that macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and money supply have a greater impact on the price, others still consider the cycle valid and call it a recurring factor in market fluctuations.